June 2025 Market Snapshot
Rosemeyer Management Group
June in Review
June saw the strong finish to one of the most volatile quarters in recent memory. The rebound of investor sentiment helped market indices post positive returns with the S&P 500 advancing a solid 5.09%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq erased their March/April losses to end the quarter at all-time highs – capping off the best two-month stock market period (11.7% S&P return) since Nov–Dec 2023. The outbreak and subsequent conclusion of the Israel-Iran conflict had little to no effect on growing investor optimism as US equities outpaced global stocks in June. Softening inflation and the increased likelihood of 2025 rate cuts helped US bonds post a modest 1.5% return in June.
| Index | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 4.47% | 4.55% |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Average | 5.09% | 6.20% |
| Russell 2000 (Small Cap Index) | 5.44% | -1.79% |
| Total U.S. Stock Market | 5.12% | 5.73% |
| MSCI ACWI ex USA (Intl. Index) | 3.39% | 17.90% |
| Barclay’s U.S. Agg. Bond Index | 1.54% | 4.02% |
Looking Forward: What’s Ahead for Q3 & Beyond
On a positive note, inflation has remained muted every month and has set the table for the Fed to cut rates in the back half of 2025. The bond market and Federal Reserve policymakers are in unison with their projection of two rate cuts by year-end. Labor markets have remained resilient in the face of tariffs with employers adding 37,000 more jobs than analysts expected for the month of June and unemployment dipping slightly to 4.1%. The big domestic news, though, is Congress passing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). This will make permanent the tax cuts set forth in 2017, while making other smaller modifications to the tax code. Markets responded positively as lower taxes and more certainty should provide support for sustained economic growth.
While the changes to individuals’ tax situations will be relatively minor, be sure to consult your tax professional with how the recent legislation may impact your own tax planning and preparation.
